No, Buhari, Not 2015 By Sonala Olumhense

If you have not done the
arithmetic, reader, you
should: technically there is
only one year left until the
battle for power in 2015
formally begins. By this time
next year, you would only
need to crane your neck
around 2014 to see the
Promised Land, or the land
of empty.
By this time next year, all of
those interested in federal
power in 2015 would have
started work in earnest,
fobbing off competition,
engineering alignment or
announcing new convictions.
Already, two important
political stalwarts, General
Muhammadu Buhari of the
Congress for Political Change
(CPC) and Asiwaju Bola
Tinubu of the Action
Congress of Nigeria (ACN),
have made important
statements. Buhari predicted
bloodshed unless there are
proper elections and the
People’s Democratic Party
(PDP) stops shortchanging
Nigeria and ends corruption.
Similarly, in a highly engaging
written comment on the
reinstatement of Justice Ayo
Salami as President of the
Court of Appeal, Tinubu
warned that the federal
government’s refusal to
reinstate Justice Salami goes
beyond political
partisanship. “It will define
the very meaning of
governance in Nigeria, either
for good or bad. It is time to
select the side that you are
on. Either you are for right or
for power. You cannot be
both because the improper
actions of government have
precluded such a
combination.”
Asiwaju Tinubu’s gospel, like
General Buhari’s warning
about 2015, cannot be
faulted. We need proper
elections and we need a
government that is subject to
the law, not a master over it.
The problem is that both
men are playing the wrong
game. They are playing an
old and unproductive game:
the game of words, not
action. And they are playing
in their own 18-yard box,
where they cannot advance
the ball, let alone score at
the other end.
On account of this approach,
it is clear that both men may
have unwisely become a part
of the problem, for two
reasons.
The first is that just over one
year ago, these two men had
a chance to present Nigeria
with a united electoral front
that might have completely
changed the current balance
of forces—“for right or for
power,” to borrow Tinubu’s
metaphor—but they blew
it. I do not recall Buhari—
whose candidature I
endorsed in this column
because I argued that of the
candidates in the presidential
contest only he could
confront corruption—putting
Nigeria first by making that
choice available.
Nor do I recall Tinubu
choosing “right” over power
in order to give ordinary
Nigerians a strong option to
the PDP at the presidential
polls. CPC went its way, as
did the ACN, and they were
both overrun by the PDP. In
Tinubu’s case, his party was
curiously trampled upon over
and above his own candidate,
a phenomenon he has never
explained.
The second reason why both
Buhari and Tinubu must
resist the self-serving
temptation to believe they
are speaking for the ordinary
Nigerian is that none of them
is doing anything today to
advance Nigerian politics as
we have known it since 1960.
In 2011, the ACN maintained
its stranglehold on the old
West. But it is a script we
have seen before: from the
Action Group through the
Unity Party of Nigeria into
the Alliance for Democracy.
With three years to the next
election, this is the time that
the ACN ought to be sowing
and planting in the North and
in the East with an eye its
first trophies outside its
comfort zone.
Similarly, this is the time that
CPC ought to be in the East
and the West, so that in the
future it can market itself as
a national party and enjoy
brighter prospects.
This is the time that these
parties ought to be opening
local government offices and
doing such grassroots work
as sponsoring libraries,
helping farmers or offering
scholarships in an effort to
increase name and voter
recognition.
On the contrary, they seem
content with routine
politicking by press
statements. To be sure, the
PDP will provide opportunity
for many such statements,
but that does not necessarily
translate into voter affection
for any other party, or into
the keys to the kingdom.
Any political party that says it
is different must prove it. To
begin with, instead of
criticizing the PDP at every
anniversary, parties in control
in the States should ask those
States to publish anniversary
reports to let Nigerians see
what they are missing, if
anything.    
At the national level, much of
what ails us comes down to
the rule of law, but this is a
general problem and should
not be cited only when there
is such an issue as Justice
Salami’s reinstatement or the
fuel subsidy shame.
What the opposition parties—
and I use the term very
loosely—should do, is
develop a strategy that
enables the entire country to
focus on the development of
better laws, and their
implementation. The obvious
starting point is the Electoral
Law.
What passes for the Electoral
Law at the moment can
never give us respectable
elections, but we have the
brilliant Justice Uwais Report
that—for those who have
read it—is the clear path
forward for Nigeria. Parties
such as the CPC and ACN can
rise above themselves and
become adoptive parents of
that labour of love,
relentlessly advocating it until
it becomes the law.
Unless we have the kind of
restructured and truly
independent electoral system
proposed by the Justice Uwais
panel, elections in Nigeria will
be a bigger joke every four
years, and lazy parties will
have much more to write
press statements about.
Think about it: does anyone
really expect Professor
Attahiru Jega of the
“Independent” electoral
commission to be loyal to
anyone other than the
person who appointed him?
He cannot, and to prove it,
over one year after the last
election, Jega has not started
the prosecution of the Big
Men he announced as having
rigged the last voters’
register. I wonder why.
A similar kind of
independence is demanded
in our struggle with
corruption. In order to be
effective, Nigeria’s so-called
anti-corruption bodies must
become independent of the
executive, of which they are
currently designed to be a
tool. This is another key area
in which the CPC and ACN
can be of great help to
Nigeria over their narrower
interests.
In terms of the challenge of
establishing structures,
reforms and processes that
will serve all Nigerians, it was
distressing to hear Buhari say
last week that he is
considering running for the
presidency in 2015. The law
does not bar him, but if he
does run, he would be 73,
and it would be 32 years
after he first served as Head
of State.
Buhari should have the
courage to tell the so-called
supporters who are telling
him to run for the fourth
time something I hope he
understands: politics is not
only about elections or
getting oneself elected. It is
about service, and you do
not have to be in office to
offer it to the people.
Of greater importance, the
most important politics is in-
between elections, where vast
investments of energy and
commitment can be made to
make elections and
governance a true tool of
social advancement.
Buhari has lost three
previous elections, partly
through rigging. But a good
deal of his defeats, especially
in 2011 where the rigging
was more sophisticated,
cannot be blamed upon the
PDP rigging machine for the
simple reason that the CPC
was barely present in many
States he lost. Buhari can
work to rectify that for his
party, and therefore for our
country.
Equally important is that
Buhari must remember that
arrogance can appear in
many forms. While Nigeria is
a country where integrity is in
very short supply, surely
since Buhari’s days as Head
of State, he has identified
younger people with similar
values? If he has, he should
be supporting one of those
people now for leadership. If
he has not, it would be
difficult to argue that he has
been a success. And if he is
the only principled man he
knows, that is no success at
all.
At 70, people like Buhari can
best serve Nigeria if their
focus is not necessarily on
winning the presidency, but
on developing structures,
processes and mechanisms
that will guide Nigeria well,
no matter who is in charge,
and irrespective of who is
not.
•
sonala.olumhense@gmail.com

#CONSENSUS 2015