The National Disaster Of A Spreading Flood By Baba Aye

From September, twenty
seven out of the thirty six
states of the Nigerian
federation have been
ravaged by what President
Goodluck Jonathan aptly
described as “unprecedented
floods”, in his October 8,
2012 national broadcast. In a
characteristic manner, a lot
of motion is now being
made and presented as
movement to ameliorate the
dire situation. But several
questions remain
unanswered. What led to the
flood? What has been and
could be the costs of the
floods for the common man,
woman and child in the
affected states? Was the
extent of the floods impact
on poor working people one
that could not have been
avoided? Can the measures
now being proposed by Mr
President drag the country
out of this catastrophe and
its aftermath? If not, what is
to be done? These are
questions that require
answers beyond just
throwing money (much of
which would not get to the
supposed beneficiaries) at
the real and perceived
problems.
The impact of the flood has
been devastating to say the
very least. About five million
citizens have been rendered
homeless, representing
some 25% of the entire
population, according to the
presidency. The floods have
also claimed over a hundred
lives. At least two of these
were suicides by poor
persons in Kogi state who
had lost all they had, as well
as hope. The immense
majority of Internally
Displaced Persons being not
rich enough to fend for
themselves have been
quartered in the most
despicable of camps, jam-
packed like sardines. The
likelihood of renewed spread
of water-borne and air-
borne diseases’ epidemics is
rife. Eighty seven persons
had earlier died in Nigeria
from the cholera outbreak
that has wreaked havoc on
slums in the West African
sub-region.
The flood is also most likely
a harbinger of famine in the
very near future. Governor
Seriake Dickson of Bayelsa
state who described the
flood as “a tragedy of
monumental and
unimaginable proportion”
identified this when he
noted that the state
government would have to
contend with the challenge
of famine in no distant time.
But the fact of the matter is
that the worsening of poor
people’s hunger has already
started. Presently in the
same Bayelsa state for
example, a cup of garri, a
staple food across the
country, which used to cost
N350.00 before the flood
now goes for upwards of
N1,250.00!
It is however rather
unfortunate to have heard
President Jonathan define
the period of the flood as
being “the past few weeks”
of late September/early
October. This period was
merely the high point of a
disaster that did not come
out of the blues. The flood
had started in July, sweeping
through Lagos, Oyo and
Plateau states with
vengeance. More than forty
persons were killed at that
point in time by the flood in
Jos alone, with another 35
declared as missing, while
almost five thousand
persons were displaced.
Further, there had been
warnings by the
meteorological agency since
March 2011, of impending
flood like none seen for
decades. But no concrete
action was taken to prevent
the calamity which the state
and its representatives now
shed crocodile tears over.
Thus when the Senate
President, David Mark who
described the flood as an
“unimaginable situation”
claimed that it caught
everyone by surprise, one
cannot but heave a sardonic
sigh.
This catastrophe was
avoidable, pure and simple.
But then, avoiding it would
have meant that the social-
economic and political
situation in Nigeria is not
what it is. To understand
why this is so, a closer look
at the root cause of the
flood would be necessary.
Several reasons have been
adduced for the flood.
President Jonathan
expressed his sadness that
“this global phenomenon of
devastating floods has time
come to Nigeria at this”, but
is not explicit on the causes
globally and locally. At the
heart of the problem, we are
made to understand, is
climate change, caused by
global warming. This is very
true, but makes us only
grasp a half truth.
The other half of the truth
has to do with the cause of
global warming itself. While
there are still a number of
climate change sceptics, the
blows that global warming is
dealing the planet are quite
visible for anyone to see. It
takes the shape of
heightened extremes of
natural phenomena. Floods,
hurricanes, typhoons,
tornadoes, and tropical
storms have generally
become “unprecedented” in
their severity. But the rate of
desertification in arid zones
has also increased. Drought
has equally claimed so many
lives, across several
countries in West and East
Africa. The present drought
which started some two
years back is the worst since
1969, the same year Nigeria
had an experience of
flooding of a similar
proportion to the current
disaster. The devastation
mother earth and working
people face from global
warming is not limited to the
tropics. The spate of
hurricanes and typhoons that
the United States has faced
in recent years is common
knowledge. But winters have
become worse in Europe
too, being longer than they
used to be and much more
severe.
What is that critical half of
the truth about global
warming and climate change,
one might ask? It is what
Gareth Dale describes as
“the growth paradigm”. As
he rightly puts it, this model
of human “development”
“refers to the proposition
that economic growth is
good, imperative, essentially
limitless, and the principal
remedy for a litany of social
problems.” Essentially, this
paradigm is at the heart of
capitalist development. The
various owners of capital are
driven by competition to
expand production, and
accumulate for accumulation
sake, at the pain of being
driven to ruin by other
owners of capital. Neither
the wellbeing of the billions
of poor, working people nor
the sustenance of the earth
is the concern of the
capitalist.
This general reality of the
capitalist system has
decidedly grown worse over
the last four decades of
neoliberal globalization.
While growth has increased
tremendously, poverty and
avoidable deaths have
increased even more. A cost
of such mindless growth is
global warming. But
unfortunately, those who pay
the price for this
senselessness are those that
benefit the least, if at all,
from such unsustainable
growth.
The challenge of saving the
earth and avoiding such
terrible sufferings as that
which millions of Nigerians
affected by the flood are
facing is inextricably tied to
the task of the working class’
self-emancipation. The
reversal of climate change
trends on the basis of
capitalism is inherently
impossible. It is part of the
broader general crisis of
capitalism, in the mould of
the on-going long-drawn
“global economic crisis”.
There is the need for a
revolutionary system change
which will lead to and as
well involve the
enthronement of a new,
socialist, paradigm of
development. Essentially,
this model of development,
resting on the democratic
control and management of
economic and political life by
the working people, would
involve the subordination of
growth to the sustainable
development of humankind
and the safeguarding of
mother earth. This would
have to be a global system.
Climate change’s global
character is one of the clear
pointers to the fact that the
greatest questions this
generation has to find
answers to are international
even as the struggle to win
such answers rage within
our different countries.
It is however pertinent to
point out that, while the
broader picture of climate
change cannot be resolved
on the basis of capitalist
development, it was very
possible to have saved lives
and livelihoods resulting
from such disasters as the
tragedy of the flood, even in
the present period we live
in. The Federal Government
of Nigeria has to provide
answers to some pressing
questions beyond now
throwing N17bn around,
supposedly to salvage the
situation. Why were no plans
made since last year when
forecast of the flooding was
made? Why has Nigeria not
been able to build a dam to
capture waters released by
the Cameroonian Lagdo dam
since 1982 as earlier
envisaged?
The Nigerian elite class, one
cannot but conclude, is both
inept and less concerned
about the lives and
livelihoods of the poor man,
woman and child. While
gross ineptitude on the part
of the bosses might have a
frighteningly Nigerian trade
mark, being less concerned
about the lives of poor
working people is a trait
which bosses all over the
world share. This cannot but
be so where and when
neoliberal values and ideas
are dominant, and central
planning absent. A clear
example of this can be
shown with two contrary
cases of how governments
have responded to similar
tragedies like the current
flood in Nigeria.
In 2005, Hurricane Katrina
battered the United States.
Over two thousand lives
were lost, with some
estimates projecting the loss
of lives as being more like
four thousand. The loss of
property was $159.2bn,
poor uninsured working
people bearing the brunt of
such material loss. More
important than property is
the agonizing fact that, most
of those killed were poor
working men and women.
The rich had been able to
find their ways out of the
troubled eye of Katrina. But
on the converse, Cuba which
has witnessed some of the
most powerful storms in the
Caribbean has recorded
much less deaths. There was
no single loss of life when
the terrible Hurricane Dennis
struck the island country
that same 2005, for
example. Why was this so,
unlike the situation in the
“almighty” United States?
Over 1.5million people were
evacuated to pre-arranged
shelters before the storm
arrived, with buses provided
by the government. These
shelters which had
thousands of medical and
health personnel were
stocked with food supplies,
water.
The Cuban government had
much less time to plan all
this (just a few weeks) than
the Nigerian government,
with a one year and six
months notice. Even the
United States had much
more time to have prevented
the calamity of Hurricane
Katrina than Cuba had for
Hurricane Dennis. But
central planning and a more
humane system ensured that
lives of citizens were
handled with much more
dignity than our liberal-
democratic bosses within
and outside Nigeria would
ever consider as being
necessary. It is thus just to
be angry when officials of
the National Emergency
Management Agency criticize
poor people for not finding
moving out of the pathways
of the flood after being
warned. This is like the big
bad wolf giving the dog a
bad name so as to hang it.
At this point in time, what is
to be done? While we must
insist on answers from the
government on the why it
allowed the flood to cause
such havoc, and continue to
fight for system change to
save the earth and
emancipate ourselves from
the exploitative shackles of
capitalist development,
ameliorating the conditions
of the millions of Nigerians
affected by the flood is of
utmost significance. The
establishment of the
National Committee on
Flood Relief and
Rehabilitation is a welcome
development. But this is not
enough. The mass
organisations of the working
people, including the trade
unions and community-
based associations rooted in
the peoples across all
concerned localities must be
involved in the processes of
the committee’s work.
Finally, it is important for us
all to realise that this year’s
immense flooding might just
be the beginning of more
floods to come. Next year,
from all available indices,
the flooding incidence might
be worse, if action is not
taken now. The floods ahead
will however not be limited
to rivers overflowing their
banks or heavy rain storms
as the earth’s retribution to
a capitalist world. The
looming hunger in the land
and continued oppression of
the working people holds
dark clouds of mass anger.
The floods to come would
most likely come not just as
water, but as outpouring of
the popular furry on the
streets and in the creeks.

*Baba Aye, a trade union
educator, is National
Chairperson of the Socialist
Workers League

#CONSENSUS 2015