A Case For Canceling The 2015 Elections By Okey Ndibe

Once again, Nigeria has entered an
awful, familiar season. The
country’s air is rent with talk of
power. Not electric power, no; we’re
talking raw political power! And the
general elections of 2015 seem to
have concentrated the mind of every
politician in Nigeria, incumbent and
aspirant alike. Nigeria is gravely
tense. The country’s political rope
has become extremely taut,
threatening to snap.
I’d suggest that Nigeria cancel the
2015 elections. The country should
then be put in a controlled
comatose state, ready for the
commencement of urgent, critical
care. First, let me offer a sketch of
the country’s pathologies.
Nigeria is beset by myriad crises.
Boko Haram continues to make life
in parts of the country nasty, brutish
and short. After a few years of
relative quiet, the creeks of the Niger
Delta are flaring with sporadic acts
of violence, much of them directed
at police officers. Other parts of the
country are in the vice grip of
kidnappers who, when it suits them,
murder their quarry even after
ransom is paid. Businesses and
individuals face a bad – some
argue, worsening – state of electric
power supply. The streets of many (I
suspect, most) Nigerian cities are
rife with clogged, fetid gutters that
are both eyesores and health scares
in-waiting. Hundreds of thousands
of university and polytechnic
graduates, many of them with cash-
acquired or sexually transmitted
degrees, haunt the streets,
unemployed – some unemployable
– and hopeless. Hospitals are so ill-
equipped, so scary, that a good
percentage of sick Nigerians now fly
to Europe or North America (if they
can afford it), or flock to India or
South Africa (if they don’t have the
means for the top-tier destinations),
or make do with Ghana (if all farther
locations are too expensive), or
head for some money-grubbing,
“miracle”-minting pastor or imam.
The road networks are a shambles.
And there’s much else that demands
fixing – schools; oil bunkering;
waste disposal; civil services that
are shadows of what they ought to
be; a police force that engages in
widespread extra-judicial
executions; judiciaries so corrupt
that Nigerians often resort to self-
help rather than take cases to court;
large-scale embezzlement of public
funds by federal, state and
municipal officials – to leave it at
that.
Nigeria is the perfect place for any
leader who welcomes challenges
and wants to apply her/his mind to
the solution of deep-rooted
problems. In other words, there’s
plenty of work crying for tested,
serious men and women willing to
transform their spaces – not just
those ready with a facile phrase or
two.
If President Goodluck Jonathan
realizes the enormity of the crises in
Nigeria, then he has kept it a secret
unto himself. He has hardly
demonstrated an understanding of
what real leadership is all about. In
the build-up to the 2011 elections,
Candidate Jonathan was a factory of
promises and pledges. Once sworn-
in, Mr. Jonathan seemed to ball up
all those promises and toss them in
a trash bin. It’s as if he split like an
ogbanje, the promise-spewing part
of him no longer in touch with the
snoozing, alienated president he’s
become. On occasion, Mr. Jonathan
has shown flashes of an imperial
mindset, though not to the same
degree as former President
Olusegun Obasanjo.
At any rate, our man in Aso Rock
leaves the impression of being
baffled, intimidated by the sheer size
and weight of the day-to-day
demands of his office – to say
nothing of the long term dimensions
of Nigeria’s problems. Quite simply,
the task of running Nigeria
effectively appears to be far, far
above Mr. Jonathan’s pay grade.
Yet, that hasn’t stopped him from
gearing down (or up, depending on
one’s perspective) to campaign
mode.
Like the president, most of the first-
term governors have reset their
priorities to – re-election. The
second-term governors are rearing
for their next power move. Some, I
understand, are figuring out how to
corner a seat in the Senate, a
chamber whose members are
addressed, with a verbal inflation
that’s quintessentially Nigerian, as
“Distinguished Senator.” – Others
are darting about, cozying up to one
presumed presidential player or
another, their eyes set on prizes that
range from VP through minister to
ambassador.
The official line is that Mr. Jonathan
hasn’t decided whether to seek re-
election. But that line is about as
credible as former President
Olusegun Obasanjo’s insistence that
he never wished for a third term in
office. Unless you’re a political fool
or a visitor just come from outer
space, you know President Jonathan
is desperate to return in 2015.
Let’s be clear: he has a right –
under the constitution – to run. So
do those governors seeking re-
election, coveting a vice presidential
nomination, or eyeing a legislative
post.
I think it was former dictator Ibrahim
Babangida who once mused that
Nigeria’s continued survival defied
logic. But even the hardiest of
resilient entities finally reach a
breaking point. I fear that Nigeria is
hurtling to its breaking point – in
2015.
Almost two years before the next
round of elections, we witness a
ratcheting up of belligerent rhetoric.
Mr. Jonathan’s acolytes, Asari
Dokubo and Kingsley Kuku chief
among them, have threatened
Armageddon unless their man was
allowed to shamble through another
four-year lap. Some Northern
politicians have served notice that
hell would be unleashed if Mr.
Jonathan did not abandon his
dreams of occupying the
presidential villa beyond 2015.
The threats strike me as real. Those
making them have the resume – as
well as the wherewithal – to deliver
on their warring words. With a
wretched legacy to his name, Mr.
Jonathan can hardly win without
manipulating the powers of
incumbency – without rigging, in
other words. Bereft of vision and too
lazy to articulate a set of viable
answers for Nigeria’s maladies, the
opposition forces seem bent on out-
rigging the PDP. Elections cost too
much in Nigeria; they take up
scarce resources sorely needed for
developmental purposes – and they
invariably end up rigged, anyway.
It’s all a perfect recipe for certain
disaster. Some of us think that the
current climate of insecurity in
Nigeria is absolutely unsustainable.
I shudder to imagine the post-2015
scenario.
Nigerians may not be able to bear –
should not bear – the burden of yet
another clash of naked ambitions.
Neither President Jonathan nor the
Northerners who want his job nor
the coalition of opposition forces
has shown any indication of
possessing an antidote to Nigeria’s
complex of problems. All of them
seek political power, it seems, for its
own sake. Let me correct that
statement. They appear to share a
dream: to preside over the unabated
dispossession of the Nigerian
people.
Nigeria is highly combustible, ripe –
at the slightest instigation – for
horrific bloodletting. Were the global
mood and circumstances different,
today’s Nigeria would be a prime
candidate for a coup d’etat. That
such an occurrence is unfeasible
has not stopped some Nigerians
from fantasizing about military
intervention, conveniently forgetting
the horrors that came with such past
military incursions. The fact is that
a coup is highly unlikely, above all
because the international community
is now highly allergic to uniformed
poseurs who seize power.
I recommend what amounts to a
“self-help” coup, a dismantling of
the dismal apparatus that we have
misnamed democracy. Here’s a
quick outline. President Jonathan,
the 36 state governors, and the
municipal councils should stay in
office till 2015. Instead of holding
elections that are bound to carry a
staggering price tag and result in
massive rigging, Nigerians should
have a big convocation of vital
interest groups – labor, students,
the military, religious leaders,
professional groups (doctors,
lawyers, accountants, academics
etc). The body should then invite
experts in different fields to assume
control of various sectors of the
country – health, education,
sanitation, the judiciary, security,
infrastructure, and so on. Each of
the thirty-six states should also
have similar arrangements at the
state and municipal levels.
The caretaker administrators,
chosen on the basis of expertise
alone, should run Nigeria for a
minimum of ten years. The first five
years should be devoted to
designing and building a truly
modern Nigeria – one in which
power supply is regular, healthcare
is sound, education is reformed, and
infrastructure developed. During the
next five years, the caretakers
should begin to draw up a draft
constitution that contains noble
ideals, spells out what it means to
be a citizen (duties, responsibilities
and rights), decentralizes power,
establishes stable, independent
institutions (the judiciary, law
enforcement, electoral commission),
and expunges such oddities in the
extant constitution as “security
vote” and immunity for crime-
committing governors and
presidents.
I’m afraid, really afraid of what lurks
in the corner if we bumble into 2015
determined to hold elections when –
as usual – no contending party
(least of all the ruling one) is
contemplating playing by honest
rules. I fear, then, that the
alternative to a caretaker
arrangement is to have a blood-
soaked Nigeria in the hands of
undertakers.

Please follow me on twitter @
okeyndibe
( okeyndibe@gmail.com )